Staying On The Path In Retirement and Other Points to Ponder

The ripple effect

“[T]he significance of the failure of SVB (and Signature Bank) is less that it portends additional bank failures and more that it may amplify preexisting wariness among investors and lenders, leading to further credit tightening and additional pain across a range of industries and sectors.”

– Howard Marks, co-chairman of investment firm Oaktree Capital Management, in his latest memo. Read more at bit.ly/3N6WcfE.

Signal vs. noise

“Good investors understand that bear markets and volatility are part of where returns come from; these long-term investors have learned that riding them out is their highest probability approach.” 

*– The Big Picture blogger Barry Ritholtz in a 4/24/23 post. He warned against focusing on “the 20% bull/bear frame of reference,” calling it “noisy nonsense.” Read more at bit.ly/3AtwDxS. *

What happens after a bad year in the market?

“This is what makes investing in the stock market so confusing in the short-run — you can always talk yourself into the glass being half full or half empty no matter the direction of the market. It’s also why it pays to be a long-term investor when it comes to stocks. Bad things can and will happen in the short-run and nothing is guaranteed to investors in risk assets. But good things tend to happen when you have a long-term mindset in the stock market — as long as you’re willing to endure some pain in the meantime.”

- A Wealth of Common Sense blogger Ben Carlson in a 4/23 post. He noted that bad years in the market tend to be followed by good years, but not always. Read more at bit.ly/3LvsHmC.

Staying on the path in retirement

“Retirees who are willing to be even a little bit flexible about their withdrawals can generally take a higher starting amount — and in turn higher lifetime withdrawals — than those who are wedded to a fixed real withdrawal system.”

*– Morningstar director of personal finance Christine Benz in a 4/14/23 article. She and several colleagues recommend a “guardrails system” for taking retirement portfolio withdrawals. Read more at bit.ly/43YXAXz. *

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