Time for Foreign Stocks to Shine?

Imagine going back in time to evaluate a stock portfolio on Dec. 31, 1999. Over the prior five years (1995-1999), foreign stocks have performed well, nearly doubling in value (+95%). But then you look at your U.S. stocks, which have gained 2.5 times as much (+244%)!

That huge performance disparity caused many global investors to pile into U.S. tech stocks during the dot-com bubble. Alas, from the dot-com bubble peak in March 2000, performance for these classes flipped back the other way. Over the next 7½ years, U.S. stocks earned a meager +13.5% (total), while foreign stocks were much better, gaining +69%.

Global investors have recently relived a similar, if even more dramatic, setup. Over the past 14 years, U.S. stocks have gained four times more than foreign stocks: +493% vs. +114% (13.6% vs. 5.6% annualized). As during the 1990s’ dot-com bubble, the default decision for many global investors has been to increasingly pile into large U.S. growth stocks. Catalysts are emerging

The effect of 14 years of U.S. outperformance on stock valuations has been profound. The average weighted Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for the MSCI U.S. Index is 26.5. For the MSCI World ex-US index, it’s just 16.1.

However, as SMI has written countless times, valuation is not a helpful timing indicator. Foreign stocks have been cheap for years now. The valuation gap tells us that if/when investors favor foreign stocks again, the reversal could pack a powerful punch. But it doesn’t tell us anything about when that is likely to happen. What factors should we be watching for signs of a reversal between U.S. and foreign stocks? SMI has covered some of this ground before, specifically in the January 2024 article, Uncomfortable Regime Shifts. That article explained how the higher inflation environment since COVID has led to rising interest rates. Higher rates make “tangible” businesses more attractive relative to the more “ethereal” tech businesses that thrived during the recent era of ultra-low interest rates. Not coincidentally, the U.S. market is dominated by big tech companies (Magnificent Seven, etc.), while foreign markets are much less heavily weighted toward tech. That’s a solid over-arching thesis to keep watch on. But as we’ve watched the opening months of the new Trump 2.0 administration with keen interest, other factors have emerged to cause global investors to question their devotion to the “U.S. Exceptionalism” trade that has been the default in recent years. New administration policies tipping investor preferences?

There’s considerable recent evidence that global investors are starting to vote with their feet. February and March have seen significant outflows of U.S. stocks, while foreign stocks are seeing huge inflows. Given the extent and duration of U.S. stock dominance in recent years (see chart below), we’re not willing to say this trend has definitively reversed. But given the massive degree of mean reversion possible after such a long one-sided move, it’s something we’re watching closely.

Here are a few reasons investors may be inclined to favor foreign stocks.

Broader options are a good thing for SMI strategies

The factors we’ve reviewed here help explain why President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent keep repeating the idea that an adjustment period is required for the U.S. economy and that some pain may be ahead for U.S. asset prices. Starting points matter a lot in investing, and the reality is U.S. markets began 2025 with some of the highest valuations ever. In contrast, many foreign markets have very attractive valuations after being largely ignored for years.

Even if a rebalancing between U.S. and foreign markets is underway, it’s difficult to know whether this will be a rapid repricing vs. a trend that unfolds gradually. Either way, the SMI strategies will monitor this via our trend and momentum processes. Those processes led DAA into foreign stocks at the end of January, which has helped blunt the recent correction in U.S. stocks. (DAA’s foreign stock holding was up +11.2% year-to-date through March 25, while the S&P 500 was down -1.5%.) This month, Stock Upgrading is buying a new foreign stock fund for the first time since December 2023. Importantly, this isn’t the first time SMI has navigated a potentially significant trend shift away from large U.S. stocks and into foreign stocks. The years following the dot-com bubble saw huge outflows from large U.S. growth stocks that went into other parts of the market, including foreign stocks. Those years were some of SMI’s strongest relative performance years ever. The simple fact is that it’s difficult for active management to outperform when the biggest U.S. growth stocks are beating every other investment type by a wide margin. In contrast, active management tends to thrive when market activity broadens out to include foreign, small company, and value-oriented stocks. It’s too early to say definitively the trends have shifted in this direction, but the recent pickup in foreign stock returns has certainly grabbed our attention.