Faith & Finance with Rob West
Markets appear strong as we head into 2026, but beneath the surface, risks may be rising faster than returns. Each January, Bob Doll, CEO and CIO of Crossmark Global Investments, joins us on the Faith and Finance show to offer an annual outlook. This year, he characterizes the environment as a “high-risk bull market”—a market capable of gains but vulnerable to setbacks and volatility.

Looking back to 2025, Doll believes his predictions were roughly “seven out of ten.” Corporate earnings proved far more resilient than many expected, and with the Federal Reserve avoiding aggressive tightening, markets continued to climb. Earnings, Doll notes, remain the lifeblood of stocks: as long as profits grow and the Fed is not hostile, equity markets tend to trend upward.
For 2026, Doll’s first prediction is that U.S. real GDP growth will improve modestly—from about 2% to roughly 2.5%. He attributes much of that to a large government spending package passed in an election year, providing stimulus to both households and businesses.
However, inflation remains stubborn. Doll does not expect the Fed to reach its 2% target unless a recession occurs—something he does not foresee. Instead, he anticipates inflation closer to 3%, making “affordability” a defining political issue, especially around healthcare and housing, where structural challenges remain unresolved.
On interest rates, Doll expects the 10-year Treasury yield to fluctuate in a narrow range—from the high 3% area to the mid-4% area—while credit spreads widen modestly. For bond portfolios, he favors short- to intermediate-maturity bonds over long-duration bonds.
Corporate earnings should remain strong in 2026, though not at the exceptional pace of 2025. With consensus forecasts near 14% earnings growth—almost double the historical norm—Doll expects solid but not spectacular performance. As a result, he anticipates single-digit stock market returns, not another year of outsized double-digit gains.

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Sector-wise, Doll sees continued strength in financials, technology, and communication services—areas tied closely to artificial intelligence—while materials, discretionary, and utilities may lag. International stocks could also surprise investors. If they outperform U.S. equities for a second consecutive year, it would be the first such streak in two decades. Stronger liquidity, improved earnings abroad (especially in emerging markets), and potential dollar weakness all contribute—even though many Americans invest little overseas.
Artificial intelligence remains a powerful driver of productivity and market speculation, though Doll expects volatility as investors sort out the true winners and losers.
Faith-based investing, he believes, will continue its momentum as more individuals, advisors, and institutions seek alignment between values and capital. Politically, Doll predicts Republicans retain the Senate but lose the House, constraining major legislative ambitions.
If 2026 proves to be a high-risk bull market, Doll’s takeaway is straightforward: remain diversified, stay invested, and practice patient stewardship through uncertainty.
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