10 Predictions for 2026 with Bob Doll

Faith & Finance with Rob West

Markets appear strong as we head into 2026, but beneath the surface, risks may be rising faster than returns. Each January, Bob Doll, CEO and CIO of Crossmark Global Investments, joins us on the Faith and Finance show to offer an annual outlook. This year, he characterizes the environment as a “high-risk bull market”—a market capable of gains but vulnerable to setbacks and volatility.

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Show Notes

Markets appear strong as we head into 2026, but beneath the surface, risks may be rising faster than returns. Each January, CEO and CIO of Crossmark Global Investments Bob Doll joins us on the show at Faith and Finance to offer an annual outlook, and this year he characterizes the environment as a “high-risk bull market”—a market capable of gains but vulnerable to setbacks and volatility.

Looking back to 2025, Doll believes his predictions were roughly “seven out of ten.” Corporate earnings proved far more resilient than many expected, and with the Federal Reserve avoiding aggressive tightening, markets continued to climb. Earnings, Doll notes, remain the lifeblood of stocks: as long as profits grow and the Fed is not hostile, equity markets tend to trend upward.

For 2026, Doll’s first prediction is that U.S. real GDP growth will improve modestly—from about 2% to roughly 2.5%. He attributes much of that to a large government spending package passed in an election year, providing stimulus to both households and businesses.

However, inflation remains stubborn. Doll does not expect the Fed to reach its 2% target unless a recession occurs—something he does not foresee. Instead, he anticipates inflation closer to 3%, making “affordability” a defining political issue, especially around healthcare and housing, where structural challenges remain unresolved.

On interest rates, Doll expects the 10-year Treasury yield to fluctuate in a narrow range—from the high 3% area to the mid-4% area—while credit spreads widen modestly. For bond portfolios, he favors short- to intermediate-maturity bonds over long-duration bonds.

Corporate earnings should remain strong in 2026, though not at the exceptional pace of 2025. With consensus forecasts near 14% earnings growth—almost double the historical norm—Doll expects solid but not spectacular performance. As a result, he anticipates single-digit stock market returns, not another year of outsized double-digit gains.

10 Predictions for 2026 with Bob Doll

Show Notes

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